open access publication

Article, 2024

Projecting the clinical burden of chronic kidney disease at the patient level (Inside CKD): a microsimulation modelling study

EClinicalMedicine, ISSN 2589-5370, Volume 72, Page 102614, 10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102614

Contributors

Chertow, Glenn M [1] Correa-Rotter, Ricardo 0000-0003-0100-8285 [2] Eckardt, Kai-Uwe [3] Kanda, Eiichiro 0000-0003-0676-096X [4] Karasik, Avraham [5] Li, Guisen [6] Christiansen, Fynbo Christiansen 0000-0002-0727-953X [7] Stafylas, Panos 0000-0001-8550-5451 [8] Holt, Stephen Geoffrey 0000-0001-5004-5539 [9] Hagen, E Christiaan [10] Sanchez, Juan Jose Garcia 0000-0001-6546-7769 [11] Barone, Salvatore [12] Cabrera, Claudia S [13] Nolan, Stephen T (Corresponding author) [11] Coker, Timothy L R 0000-0002-2516-0639 [14] Webber, Laura L [14] Retat, Lise 0000-0002-6689-3599 [14]

Affiliations

  1. [1] Stanford University
    2. [NORA names: United States; America, North; OECD];
  2. [2] Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán
    3. [NORA names: Mexico; America, Central; OECD];
  3. [3] Charité - University Medicine Berlin
    4. [NORA names: Germany; Europe, EU; OECD];
  4. [4] Kawasaki Medical School
    5. [NORA names: Japan; Asia, East; OECD];
  5. [5] Maccabi Institute for Health Services Research
    6. [NORA names: Israel; Asia, Middle East; OECD];

Abstract

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global concern that presents significant challenges for disease management. Several factors drive CKD prevalence, including primary risk factors, such as type 2 diabetes and hypertension, and an ageing population. Inside CKD is an international initiative that aims to raise awareness of the substantial burden incurred by CKD. Methods: Using a peer-reviewed microsimulation method, the clinical burden of CKD was estimated from 2022 to 2027. Demographic data from the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific/Middle East were used to generate virtual populations and to project the prevalence of CKD, kidney replacement therapy, associated cardiovascular complications, comorbid conditions, and all-cause mortality in the CKD population over the modelled time frame. Findings: Across the 31 participating countries/regions, the total prevalence of CKD was projected to rise to 436.6 million cases by 2027 (an increase of 5.8% from 2022), with most cases (∼80%) undiagnosed. Inside CKD projected a mean of 8859 cases of heart failure, 10,244 of myocardial infarction, and 7797 of stroke per 100,000 patients with CKD by 2027. Interpretation: The clinical impact of CKD is substantial and likely to increase; the high prevalence of undiagnosed cases and associated complications may benefit from the implementation of health policy interventions that promote screening, earlier diagnosis, and interventions to improve outcomes. Funding: AstraZeneca.

Keywords

America, Chronic kidney disease prevalence, East, Europe, aging population, awareness, burden, burden of chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular complications, cases, cases of heart failure, chronic kidney disease, chronic kidney disease population, clinical burden, clinical impact, clinical impact of chronic kidney disease, comorbid conditions, complications, concerns, conditions, countries/regions, data, demographic data, diagnosis, disease, disease management, factors, failure, frame, global concern, health policy interventions, heart failure, highest prevalence, hypertension, impact of chronic kidney disease, implementation, improve outcomes, infarction, initiation, international initiatives, intervention, kidney, kidney disease, kidney replacement therapy, levels, management, method, microsimulation, microsimulation methods, microsimulation modeling study, modeling studies, modeling time frame, mortality, myocardial infarction, outcomes, participating countries/regions, patient level, patients, policy interventions, population, prevalence, prevalence of chronic kidney disease, prevalence of undiagnosed cases, primary risk factor, promote screening, replacement therapy, risk factors, screening, stroke, study, substantial burden, therapy, time frame, type, type 2 diabetes, undiagnosed cases, virtual population

Funders

  • National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases
  • National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
  • AstraZeneca (United Kingdom)

Data Provider: Digital Science

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