open access publication

Article, 2024

Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation

Science Advances, ISSN 2375-2548, Volume 10, 12, Page eadi4253, 10.1126/sciadv.adi4253

Contributors

Lohmann, Johannes (Corresponding author) [1] Dijkstra, H A [2] Jochum, Markus 0000-0003-2690-3139 [1] Lucarini, Valerio 0000-0001-9392-1471 [3] Ditlevsen, Peter Dalager 0000-0003-2120-7732 [1]

Affiliations

  1. [1] University of Copenhagen
    2. [NORA names: KU University of Copenhagen; University; Denmark; Europe, EU; Nordic; OECD];
  2. [2] Utrecht University
    3. [NORA names: Netherlands; Europe, EU; OECD];
  3. [3] University of Reading
    4. [NORA names: United Kingdom; Europe, Non-EU; OECD]

Abstract

Tipping points (TP) in climate subsystems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other subsystems, additional feedbacks, and spatial heterogeneity may promote further small-amplitude, abrupt reorganizations of geophysical flows at forcing levels lower than the critical threshold. Using a primitive-equation ocean model, we simulate a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to increasing glacial melt. Considerably before the collapse, various abrupt, qualitative changes in AMOC variability occur. These intermediate tipping points (ITP) are transitions between multiple stable circulation states. Using 2.75 million years of model simulations, we uncover a very rugged stability landscape featuring parameter regions of up to nine coexisting stable states. The path to an AMOC collapse via a sequence of ITPs depends on the rate of change of the meltwater input. This challenges our ability to predict and define safe limits for TPs.

Keywords

AMOC collapse, Atlantic, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability, Atlantic Ocean circulation, Meridional Overturning Circulation, Overturning Circulation, changes, circulation, circulation state, climate, climate subsystems, collapse, destabilization, dominant positive feedback, feedback, flow, force levels, geophysical flows, glacial melt, heterogeneity, increased glacial melt, input, landscape, levels, melting, meltwater, meltwater input, model, model simulations, multistability, ocean circulation, ocean model, path, point, positive feedback, primitive-equation ocean model, qualitative changes, rate, reorganization, sequence, simulation, spatial heterogeneity, stability, stability landscape, stable state, state, subsystems, system, system state, threshold, tip, tipping point, transition, variables, years, years of model simulations

Funders

  • European Research Council
  • European Commission

Data Provider: Digital Science

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