open access publication

Article, 2024

Cooler Arctic surface temperatures simulated by climate models are closer to satellite-based data than the ERA5 reanalysis

Communications Earth & Environment, ISSN 2662-4435, Volume 5, 1, Page 111, 10.1038/s43247-024-01276-z

Contributors

Tian, Tian (Corresponding author) [1] Yang, Shu-Ting 0000-0002-0147-2056 [1] Høyer, Jacob Lorentsen 0000-0002-4141-0490 [1] Nielsen-Englyst, Pia 0000-0001-6915-3388 [1] [2] Singha, Suman 0000-0002-1880-6868 [1]

Affiliations

  1. [1] Danish Meteorological Institute
    2. [NORA names: DMI Danish Meteorological Institute; Governmental Institutions; Denmark; Europe, EU; Nordic; OECD];
  2. [2] Technical University of Denmark
    3. [NORA names: DTU Technical University of Denmark; University; Denmark; Europe, EU; Nordic; OECD]

Abstract

Many climate models simulate near-surface air temperatures that are too low in the Arctic compared to the observation-based ERA5 reanalysis data, a bias that was noted in the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6). Here we present a high-resolution, satellite-derived dataset of near-surface air temperatures for the Arctic sea-ice region (1982–2020). We use it as a benchmark to reevaluate climate reanalyses and model simulations in CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6). We find that the CMIP6 simulations in the central Arctic, with generally thicker ice and snow, align well with satellite observations, with an annual mean bias of less than ± 1 °C over sea ice. By contrast, climate reanalyses like ERA5 exhibit widespread warm biases exceeding 2 °C in the same region. We conclude that reliance on ERA5 reanalysis as a reference may have led to an underestimation of climate model reliability in the Arctic region.

Keywords

AR6, Arctic, Arctic region, Arctic surface temperature, Assessment Report, CMIP6, CMIP6 simulations, Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, ERA5, ERA5 reanalysis, ERA5 reanalysis data, Inter-governmental Panel, Sixth Assessment Report, air temperature, annual mean bias, bias, central Arctic, climate, climate models, climate reanalyses, cooler, data, dataset, high-resolution, ice, mean bias, model, model reliability, model simulations, near-surface air temperature, observations, panel, reanalyses, reanalysis, reanalysis data, reference, region, reliability, reports, satellite, satellite observations, satellite-based data, sea, sea ice, sea-ice regions, simulation, snow, surface temperature, temperature, thick ice, underestimation, warm bias, widespread warm bias

Funders

  • European Commission

Data Provider: Digital Science

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