open access publication

Article, 2024

Bellwethers of change: population modelling of North Pacific humpback whales from 2002 through 2021 reveals shift from recovery to climate response

Royal Society Open Science, ISSN 2054-5703, Volume 11, 2, Page 231462, 10.1098/rsos.231462

Contributors

Cheeseman, Ted 0000-0002-5805-2431 (Corresponding author) [1] [2] Barlow, Jay [3] Acebes, Jo Marie Vera [4] Audley, Katherina 0000-0001-5173-9495 [5] Bejder, Lars 0000-0001-8138-8606 [6] Birdsall, Caitlin [7] Bracamontes, Olga Solis [8] Bradford, Amanda L 0000-0002-3236-834X [9] Byington, Josie [10] Calambokidis, John C [11] Cartwright, Rachel 0000-0002-2175-574X [12] [13] Cedarleaf, Jen [14] Chavez, Andrea Jacqueline García 0000-0002-1338-4758 [5] Currie, Jens [15] De Castro, Rouenne Camille [4] De Weerdt, Joëlle 0000-0003-4054-6609 [16] [17] Doe, Nicole [7] Doniol-Valcroze, Thomas 0000-0002-6852-6047 [18] Dracott, Karina 0000-0001-9225-1816 [19] Filatova, Olga A 0000-0003-1533-4807 [20] Finn, Rachel [21] Flynn, Kiirsten Regina [11] Ford, John [18] Frisch-Jordán, Astrid 0000-0003-4937-8023 [22] Gabriele, Chris [23] [24] Goodwin, Beth [25] Hayslip, Craig E [3] Hildering, Jackie 0000-0002-7081-1488 [7] Hill, Marie Chapla 0000-0002-3754-9940 [9] [26] Jacobsen, Jeff K 0000-0002-5972-3292 [27] Jiménez-López, María Esther 0000-0002-9932-5184 [28] Jones, Meagan [29] Kobayashi, Nozomi 0000-0002-7132-6601 [30] Lammers, Marc [21] Lyman, Edward [21] Malleson, Mark [31] Mamaev, Evgeny [32] Loustalot, Pamela Martínez [28] Masterman, Annie [33] Matkin, Craig O [34] Mcmillan, Christie J [7] [18] Moore, Jeff [35] Moran, John [33] Neilson, Janet L. [24] Newell, Hayley [2] Okabe, Haruna [30] Olio, Marilia 0000-0002-5819-6355 [2] Ortega-Ortiz, Christian Daniel 0000-0002-5691-9388 [36] Pack, Adam A [37] [38] Palacios, Daniel M. [3] Pearson, Heidi Christine 0000-0003-0502-2105 [14] Quintana-Rizzo, Ester [39] Barragán, Raul Ramírez [5] Ransome, Nicola L 0000-0002-3130-3966 [40] Rosales-Nanduca, Hiram 0000-0002-5539-3476 [28] Sharpe, Fred [41] Shaw, Tasli [42] Southerland, Ken [2] Stack, Stephanie H 0000-0002-7199-8408 [15] Staniland, Iain J 0000-0003-2736-9134 [43] Straley, Janice M [14] Szabo, Andrew [44] Teerlink, Suzie [45] [46] Titova, Olga V [47] Urbán-Ramírez, Jorge [28] Van Aswegen, Martin 0000-0001-6180-967X [6] Vinicius, Marcel [2] Von Ziegesar, Olga 0000-0002-9805-7632 [48] Witteveen, Briana H [49] Wray, Janie L [50] Yano, Kymberly M [9] [26] Yegin, Igor [2] [51] Zwiefelhofer, Denny [2] Clapham, Phil [52]

Affiliations

  1. [1] Southern Cross University
    2. [NORA names: Australia; Oceania; OECD];
  2. [2] Happywhale, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
    3. [NORA names: United States; America, North; OECD];
  3. [3] Oregon State University
    4. [NORA names: United States; America, North; OECD];
  4. [4] BALYENA.ORG, Brgy. Pangdan, Jagna, Bohol, The Philippines
  5. [5] Whales of Guerrero, Portland, OR, USA
    6. [NORA names: United States; America, North; OECD];

Abstract

For the 40 years after the end of commercial whaling in 1976, humpback whale populations in the North Pacific Ocean exhibited a prolonged period of recovery. Using mark-recapture methods on the largest individual photo-identification dataset ever assembled for a cetacean, we estimated annual ocean-basin-wide abundance for the species from 2002 through 2021. Trends in annual estimates describe strong post-whaling era population recovery from 16 875 (± 5955) in 2002 to a peak abundance estimate of 33 488 (± 4455) in 2012. An apparent 20% decline from 2012 to 2021, 33 488 (± 4455) to 26 662 (± 4192), suggests the population abruptly reached carrying capacity due to loss of prey resources. This was particularly evident for humpback whales wintering in Hawai'i, where, by 2021, estimated abundance had declined by 34% from a peak in 2013, down to abundance levels previously seen in 2006, and contrasted to an absence of decline in Mainland Mexico breeding humpbacks. The strongest marine heatwave recorded globally to date during the 2014-2016 period appeared to have altered the course of species recovery, with enduring effects. Extending this time series will allow humpback whales to serve as an indicator species for the ecosystem in the face of a changing climate.

Keywords

Bellwether, Hawaii, North, North Pacific Ocean, North Pacific humpback whales, Pacific Ocean, absence, absence of decline, abundance, abundance estimates, abundance levels, annual estimates, capacity, cetaceans, changing climate, climate, climate response, commercial whaling, course, dataset, decline, ecosystem, effect, estimate abundance, estimation, face, heatwaves, humpback, humpback whale population, humpback whales, indicator species, indicators, levels, loss, mainland, marine heatwaves, mark-recapture methods, method, ocean, peak, period, period of recovery, population, population model, population recovery, prey resources, prolonged period, prolonged period of recovery, recovery, resources, response, series, shift, species, species recovery, time, time series, trends, whale populations, whales, years

Funders

  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Data Provider: Digital Science

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