Preprint, 2024
Bringing it all together: Science and modelling priorities to support international climate policy
EGUsphere,
Volume 2024,
Pages 1-37,
10.5194/egusphere-2024-453
Contributors
Jones, Colin Gareth
[1]
Adloff, Fanny
[2]
Booth, Ben B B
0000-0002-0715-2141
[3]
Cox, Peter M
0000-0002-0679-2219
[4]
Eyring, Veronika Susanne
0000-0002-6887-4885
[5]
[6]
Friedlingstein, Pierre
0000-0003-3309-4739
[4]
[7]
Frieler, Katja
0000-0003-4869-3013
[8]
Hewitt, Helene
[3]
Jeffery, Hazel A
0000-0003-2553-9953
[1]
Joussaume, Sylvie
[9]
Koenigk, Torben
[10]
[11]
Lawrence, Bryan N
0000-0001-9262-7860
[12]
O'Rourke, Eleanor
[13]
Roberts, Malcolm
[3]
Sanderson, Benjamin Mark
0000-0001-8635-4624
[14]
Séférian, Roland
0000-0002-2571-2114
[15]
Somot, Samuel
0000-0002-5066-2921
[15]
Vidale, Pier Luigi
0000-0002-1800-8460
[12]
Van Vuuren, Detlef P
0000-0003-0398-2831
[16]
[17]
Acosta, Mario
[18]
Bentsen, Mats
0000-0001-5441-4063
[19]
[20]
Bernardello, Raffaele
0000-0003-4923-1582
[18]
Betts, Richard
[3]
[4]
Blockley, Edward W
0000-0002-0489-4238
[3]
Boé, Julien
[21]
Bracegirdle, Tom J
[22]
Braconnot, Pascale
0000-0002-1852-9178
[9]
Brovkin, Victor A
0000-0001-6420-3198
[23]
Buontempo, Carlo
[24]
Doblas-Reyes, Francisco Javier
0000-0002-6622-4280
[18]
[25]
Donat, Markus G
0000-0002-0608-7288
[18]
Epicoco, Italo
0000-0002-6408-1335
[26]
[27]
Falloon, Pete D
0000-0001-7567-8885
[3]
[28]
Fiore, Sandro
[29]
Froelicher, Thomas
[30]
Fučkar, Neven-Stjepan
0000-0002-0097-3764
[31]
[32]
Gidden, Matthew J
0000-0003-0687-414X
[33]
Goessling, Helge Friedrich
0000-0001-9018-1383
[34]
Graversen, Rune Grand
0000-0003-4899-553X
[35]
Gualdi, Silvio
[36]
Gutiérrez, Jose Manuel
[37]
Ilyina, Tatiana
[38]
Jacob, Daniela
0000-0002-5249-4044
[39]
Jones, Chris
[3]
[28]
Juckes, Martin N
[1]
[40]
Kendon, Elizabeth Jane
0000-0003-1538-2147
[3]
[28]
Kjellström, Erik
0000-0002-6495-1038
[11]
Knutti, Reto
0000-0001-8303-6700
[41]
Lowe, Jason A
0000-0002-8201-3926
[1]
[3]
Mizielinski, Matthew S
[3]
Nassisi, Paola
0000-0003-2857-4391
[27]
Obersteiner, Michael
0000-0001-6981-2769
[32]
Regnier, Pierre
[42]
Roehrig, Romain
[15]
Salas y Melia, David
[15]
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
0000-0001-8471-848X
[43]
Schulz, Michael
[44]
Scoccimarro, Enrico
[36]
Terray, Laurent
[21]
Thiemann, Hannes
0000-0002-2329-8511
[2]
Wood, Richard
[3]
Yang, Shuting
[45]
Zaehle, Soenke
0000-0001-5602-7956
[46]
Affiliations
- [1]
University of Leeds
[NORA names:
United Kingdom; Europe, Non-EU; OECD];
- [2]
German Climate Computing Centre
[NORA names:
Germany; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [3]
Met Office
[NORA names:
United Kingdom; Europe, Non-EU; OECD];
- [4]
University of Exeter
[NORA names:
United Kingdom; Europe, Non-EU; OECD];
- [5]
German Aerospace Center
[NORA names:
Germany; Europe, EU; OECD];
(... more)
- [6]
University of Bremen
[NORA names:
Germany; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [7]
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace
[NORA names:
France; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [8]
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
[NORA names:
Germany; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [9]
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
[NORA names:
France; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [10]
Stockholm University
[NORA names:
Sweden; Europe, EU; Nordic; OECD];
- [11]
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
[NORA names:
Sweden; Europe, EU; Nordic; OECD];
- [12]
University of Reading
[NORA names:
United Kingdom; Europe, Non-EU; OECD];
- [13]
European Centre for Space Applications and Telecommunications
[NORA names:
United Kingdom; Europe, Non-EU; OECD];
- [14]
CICERO Center for International Climate Research
[NORA names:
Norway; Europe, Non-EU; Nordic; OECD];
- [15]
Université de Toulouse
[NORA names:
France; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [16]
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
[NORA names:
Netherlands; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [17]
Utrecht University
[NORA names:
Netherlands; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [18]
Barcelona Supercomputing Center
[NORA names:
Spain; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [19]
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
[NORA names:
Norway; Europe, Non-EU; Nordic; OECD];
- [20]
Norwegian Research Centre
[NORA names:
Norway; Europe, Non-EU; Nordic; OECD];
- [21]
CECI, CNRS/Cerfacs, Toulouse, France
[NORA names:
France; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [22]
British Antarctic Survey
[NORA names:
United Kingdom; Europe, Non-EU; OECD];
- [23]
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
[NORA names:
Germany; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [24]
ECMWF, Robert Schuman Platz, Bonn, Germany
[NORA names:
Germany; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [25]
Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats
[NORA names:
Spain; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [26]
University of Salento
[NORA names:
Italy; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [27]
Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change
[NORA names:
Italy; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [28]
University of Bristol
[NORA names:
United Kingdom; Europe, Non-EU; OECD];
- [29]
University of Trento
[NORA names:
Italy; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [30]
University of Bern
[NORA names:
Switzerland; Europe, Non-EU; OECD];
- [31]
University of St Andrews
[NORA names:
United Kingdom; Europe, Non-EU; OECD];
- [32]
University of Oxford
[NORA names:
United Kingdom; Europe, Non-EU; OECD];
- [33]
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
[NORA names:
Austria; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [34]
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
[NORA names:
Germany; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [35]
UiT The Arctic University of Norway
[NORA names:
Norway; Europe, Non-EU; Nordic; OECD];
- [36]
Fondazione CMCC, Bologna, Italy
[NORA names:
Italy; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [37]
Institute of Physics of Cantabria
[NORA names:
Spain; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [38]
Universität Hamburg, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany
[NORA names:
Germany; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [39]
Climate Service Center
[NORA names:
Germany; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [40]
Science and Technology Facilities Council
[NORA names:
United Kingdom; Europe, Non-EU; OECD];
- [41]
ETH Zurich
[NORA names:
Switzerland; Europe, Non-EU; OECD];
- [42]
Université Libre de Bruxelles
[NORA names:
Belgium; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [43]
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
[NORA names:
Germany; Europe, EU; OECD];
- [44]
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
[NORA names:
Norway; Europe, Non-EU; Nordic; OECD];
- [45]
Danish Meteorological Institute
[NORA names:
DMI Danish Meteorological Institute;
Governmental Institutions; Denmark; Europe, EU; Nordic; OECD];
- [46]
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
[NORA names:
Germany; Europe, EU; OECD]
(less)
Abstract
We review how the international modelling community, encompassing Integrated Assessment models, global and regional Earth system and climate models, and impact models, have worked together over the past few decades, to advance understanding of Earth system change and its impacts on society and the environment, and support international climate policy. We then recommend a number of priority research areas for the coming ~6 years (i.e. until ~2030), a timescale that matches a number of newly starting international modelling activities and encompasses the IPCC 7th Assessment Report (AR7) and the 2nd UNFCCC Global Stocktake. Progress in these areas will significantly advance our understanding of Earth system change and its impacts and increase the quality and utility of science support to climate policy. We emphasize the need for continued improvement in our understanding of, and ability to simulate, the coupled Earth system and the impacts of Earth system change. There is an urgent need to investigate plausible pathways and emission scenarios that realize the Paris Climate Targets, including pathways that overshoot the 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets, before later returning to them. Earth System models (ESMs) need to be capable of thoroughly assessing such warming overshoots, in particular, the efficacy of negative CO2 emission actions in reducing atmospheric CO2 and driving global cooling. An improved assessment of the long-term consequences of stabilizing climate at 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures is also required. We recommend ESMs run overshoot scenarios in CO2-emission mode, to more fully represent coupled climate - carbon cycle feedbacks. Regional downscaling and impact models should also use forcing data from these simulations, so impact and regional climate projections are as realistic as possible. An accurate simulation of the observed record remains a key requirement of models, as does accurate simulation of key metrics, such as the Effective Climate Sensitivity. For adaptation, improved guidance on potential changes in climate extremes and the modes of variability these extremes develop in, is a key demand. Such improvements will most likely be realized through a combination of increased model resolution and improvement of key parameterizations. We propose a deeper collaboration across modelling efforts targeting increased process realism and coupling, enhanced model resolution, parameterization improvement, and data-driven Machine Learning methods. With respect to sampling future uncertainty, increased collaboration between approaches that emphasize large model ensembles and those focussed on statistical emulation is required. We recommend increased attention is paid to High Impact Low Likelihood (HILL) outcomes. In particular, the risk and consequences of exceeding critical tipping points during a warming overshoot. For a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of Earth system change, including impacts arising directly from specific mitigation actions, it is important detailed, disaggregated information from the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) used to generate future scenarios is available to impact models. Conversely, methods need to be developed to incorporate potential future societal responses to the impacts of Earth system change into scenario development. Finally, the new models, simulations, data, and scientific advances, proposed in this article will not be possible without long-term development and maintenance of a robust, globally connected infrastructure ecosystem. This system must be easily accessible and useable across all modelling communities and across the world, allowing the global research community to be fully engaged in developing and delivering new scientific knowledge to support international climate policy.
Keywords
Assessment Report,
CO2,
CO2 emission modes,
CO2 emissions,
Earth,
Earth System Model,
Earth system,
Earth system changes,
IPCC,
Paris,
Paris climate targets,
accurate simulation,
action,
activity,
adaptation,
advances,
approach,
area,
assessment,
assessment model,
atmospheric CO2,
attention,
carbon cycle feedbacks,
changes,
climate,
climate extremes,
climate models,
climate policy,
climate projections,
climate sensitivity,
climate targets,
collaboration,
combination,
community,
comprehensive assessment,
consequences,
cooling,
coupled Earth system,
coupling,
critical tipping points,
cycle feedbacks,
data,
data-driven machine learning methods,
decades,
development,
disaggregated information,
downscaling,
ecosystem,
effect,
effective climate sensitivity,
efficacy,
efforts,
emission,
emission scenarios,
emulation,
ensemble,
environment,
extremities,
feedback,
force data,
future uncertainty,
global cooling,
global research community,
guidance,
impact,
impact model,
improved assessment,
improvement,
increased collaboration,
increasing attention,
information,
infrastructure,
infrastructure ecosystem,
integrated assessment model,
integration,
international climate policy,
knowledge,
learning methods,
likelihood,
long-term consequences,
long-term development,
low likelihood,
machine learning methods,
maintenance,
method,
metrics,
mitigation,
mitigation actions,
mode,
model,
model ensemble,
model resolution,
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modes of variability,
outcomes,
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parameterization,
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plausible pathways,
point,
policy,
potential changes,
pre-industrial temperatures,
priority,
priority research areas,
progression,
project,
quality,
realism,
records,
reduce atmospheric CO2,
regional Earth system,
regional climate projections,
regional downscaling,
reports,
requirements,
requirements of models,
research area,
research community,
resolution,
response,
risk,
scenario development,
scenarios,
science,
science support,
scientific advances,
scientific knowledge,
sensitivity,
simulation,
societal responses,
society,
statistical emulator,
support,
system,
system changes,
system model,
target,
temperature,
timescales,
tipping point,
uncertainty,
variables,
warming,
world,
years
Funders
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