Markets under Mao: Measuring Underground Activity in the Early PRC

Abstract In this article we develop and analyse novel datasets to retrace the persistence and scale of underground market activity in Maoist China. We show that, contrary to received wisdom, Chinese citizens continued to engage in market-based transactions long after “socialist transformation” was ostensibly complete, and that this activity constituted a substantial proportion of local economic output throughout the Maoist era. This helps to explain, in part, why, when markets were officially reopened in China, private economic activity took off. We arrive at these findings through the development and analysis of novel datasets based on unconventional historical sources – namely, a collection of 2,690 cases of “speculation and profiteering” that were recovered from flea markets in eastern China. We show how these grassroots sources can be systematically analysed and used, in lieu of official statistical aggregates, to develop new insights into the macro workings of the Maoist economy. 摘要 本文旨在通过开发和分析新的数据集,追溯毛泽东时代地下市场活动的规模和持久性。我们揭示了与传统观点相反的事实:中国民众在 “社会主义改造”完成后继续进行基于市场的交易活动,而这种活动在整个毛泽东时代占当地经济产出相当大的比例。这在一定程度上有助于解释为什么中国正式重新开放市场后,私人经济活动得以蓬勃发展。我们的这些发现是主要是通过分析一系列从中国东部古玩市场收集的 2,690 起 “投机倒把”案例得出的。我们展示了如何系统地分析和利用这些基层数据源,以替代官方统计数据,从而对毛泽东时代经济的运作产生新的洞察。