Article, 2023

Dengue transmission under future climate and human population changes in mainland China

Applied Mathematical Modelling, ISSN 0307-904X, 1872-8480, Volume 114, Pages 785-798, 10.1016/j.apm.2022.10.027

Contributors

Khan, Mohsin 0000-0003-4806-2174 [1] Pedersen, Michael 0000-0002-5166-2624 [2] Zhu, Min [3] Zhang, Hong 0000-0002-1975-3649 [4] Zhang, Lai (Corresponding author) [1]

Affiliations

  1. [1] Yangzhou University
    2. [NORA names: China; Asia, East];
  2. [2] Technical University of Denmark
    3. [NORA names: DTU Technical University of Denmark; University; Denmark; Europe, EU; Nordic; OECD];
  3. [3] Anhui Normal University
    4. [NORA names: China; Asia, East];
  4. [4] Changzhou Institute of Technology
    5. [NORA names: China; Asia, East]

Abstract

Dengue fever (DF) is a re-emerging disease spread by mosquitoes. It is primarily found in the tropics and subtropics, and its prevalence is heavily influenced by global warming. A comprehensive understanding of how the changes in climate and human population affect future dengue epidemics is crucial for effective prevention and control. In this paper we extend a mechanistic compartmental model for mosquito dynamics of immature and mature stages, coupled with human population dynamics. Stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium is carried out analytically, and the basic reproduction number is derived. Model parameters are explicitly linked to climatic variables and human population density. Model validation suggests that the basic reproduction number acts as a reliable measure of the spread ability of DF in response to future scenarios of climate and human population change. Our model predicts that the risk area of DF will expand considerably in mainland China, and the expansion fronts are mainly extended in the center and east. Most importantly, sensitivity analysis and model prediction both show that while temperature is critical in determining the threshold suitability for DF transmission, precipitation and human population density act locally to regulate the spreading DF patterns, where high values of these two factors may significantly accelerate the spreading process. Our results indicate a strong call for increased attention in the areas that are currently safe from DF, but climatically suitable for DF spread as consequence of the fast-economic growth and rapid urbanization.

Keywords

China, DF patterns, DF transmission, East, ability, analysis, area, attention, center, changes, climate, climate variability, comprehensive understanding, consequences, control, dengue, dengue epidemics, dengue fever, dengue transmission, density, disease, disease-free equilibrium, dynamics, effective prevention, epidemic, equilibrium, expansion, expansion front, factors, fast economic growth, fever, front, future climate, global warming, growth, human population, human population change, human population density, human population dynamics, increasing attention, mainland, mainland China, mature stage, measurements, model, model parameters, model predictions, model validation, mosquito dynamics, mosquitoes, number, parameters, patterns, population, population change, population density, population dynamics, precipitation, prediction, prevalence, prevention, process, rapid urbanization, re-emerging diseases, reproduction, reproduction number, response, results, risk, risk areas, scenarios, scenarios of climate, sensitivity, sensitivity analysis, spread, spreading ability, spreading process, stability, stability analysis, stage, subtropics, suitability, temperature, threshold, transmission, tropics, understanding, urbanization, validity, variables, warming

Funders

  • National Natural Science Foundation of China
  • Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China

Data Provider: Digital Science

LINKS
-

Matching Records in NORA

SUBJECTS
+

METRICS
+